CONSENSUS -- ARE WE AT PEAK EARNINGS, OR JUST THE BEGINNING OF A BOOM?
I am focused primarily on consumer sectors.
Most companies I'm seeing right now have the following pattern:
- EBITDA up[redacted]% 2019 vs. 2021E
- Sales up 10-25% 2019 vs. 2021
- Costs flat, slightly down or up 2019 vs. 2021
Bears would say 1) costs go up from here -- wages, fuel, rent, input costs all have severe price movements, and 2) demand slows or falls back to 2019 levels, so[redacted]EBITDA is 2019*(1+real growth+inflation)
Bulls would say 1) a good company can pass the costs through, and 2)the boom is self-reinforcing and causes more demand (MMT), so[redacted]is 2021*(1+real growth+inflation).
Of course, it depends on the sector, but ignoring outlier sectors like outdoor pool companies or downtown conventions., the high 2021 EBITDA pattern cuts across almost every company I see, be it products or services. Almost every valuation implicitly is making a macro bet, and the range is substantial.
Curious how searchers and investors are thinking about this?