Where the 3x–5x Deals Are Actually Hiding (Data Inside)

The most compelling ETA arbitrage still sits in the boring parts of the U.S. economy where stability is high, competition is low, and digital adoption is decades behind. When you look at niche manufacturing, commercial HVAC, fire suppression, and testing or compliance services, the same patterns show up again and again: consumables, regulatory calendars, certification-driven demand, and long-standing customer relationships. To make this more concrete, I ran an arbitrage profile through Apollo. The same signals repeated across the dataset: • Flat or negative hiring trends • No CRM or ERP in place • Operator-led structures • Websites untouched for years • Founder-controlled decision-making These aren’t distressed companies. They’re under-professionalized and undervalued, which is why they trade in the 3x to 5x range. These Apollo filters consistently surface that profile: • United States • 15 to 40 years in business • 10 to 70 employees • Founder-led or privately held • No CRM or ERP detected • Flat or negative hiring trend • Manufacturing or regulated services A simplified Apollo benchmark snapshot looks like this: Industry | Headcount | Est. Revenue | Est. Margin | Notes ------------------------|-----------|--------------|-------------|-------------------------- Niche Manufacturing | 15–50 | $3–15M | 18–28% | Consumables, sticky B2B Commercial HVAC | 20–70 | $4–12M | 15–25% | Regulatory cycles Fire Suppression | 15–40 | $3–10M | 12–22% | Mandatory recurring Testing/Compliance | 10–30 | $2–8M | 12–18% | Certification moat On the sourcing side, LinkedIn becomes very predictable when used as a structured outbound engine. A typical monthly cycle produces: • Around 900 contacts made • Roughly 270 turn into active connections • About 50 to 60 reply • And 12 to 15 are direct conversations with owners open to selling Reply quality improves significantly when outreach uses psychometric cues and AI-driven 1:1 messaging tailored to the founder’s mindset, succession concerns, modernization pressure, or desire to de-risk. When those emotional drivers are reflected back in the first touchpoint, replies increase and the conversations become more substantive. The throughline across all of this is simple: the combination of behavioral signals, operational gaps, and psychometrically aligned outreach creates a predictable pipeline of owners who are both undervalued and genuinely open to transition.