When Evaluating a Business, We Try to Understand the Market Around It
One thing we’ve been trying to get better at is going beyond the usual market-size and industry-growth research when evaluating a business. It’s easy to collect population data, market size, salaries, growth rates and a list of competitors and feel like you understand the market. But that’s usually just the starting point. In a recent project, we started by looking at the size and demographics of the market. From there, we went one level deeper: who actually creates demand for the business? What does the end customer do after buying the service? Who are the employers, buyers or counterparties on the other side? How large is that underlying demand, and where is it concentrated? Then we mapped the competitive landscape and started asking a more important question: why would someone choose this business over the alternatives? Is it price, convenience, accessibility, relationships, outcomes, specialization, or simply a better customer experience? The final step is putting yourself in the customer's shoes. If I were the customer, what would make me choose this company? And if the answer isn’t obvious, that’s something worth understanding before getting too far into the acquisition. We’ve found that this process often uncovers things that don’t show up in a standard CIM or market report. Sometimes it strengthens the investment thesis. Sometimes it raises questions. Both are useful. More recently, this way of looking at markets has made us curious about something beyond the U.S. We’ve started applying the same lens to a few industries in India as well. Very different market. Very different dynamics. But some surprisingly similar patterns. We’ve come across a few businesses and industries that were genuinely interesting. More on that soon.