Valuation Advice - Manufacturer
November 19, 2024
by a searcher from University of Virginia-Darden - Darden School of Business in Walla Walla, WA 99362, USA
Here's the basic context:
- Manufacturer focused on a industry that is currently challenged
- EBITDA in 22 and 23 of ~$1m
- Under LOI beginning of the year, deal failed, owner had health issues
- Revenue down ~50% for the year, EBITDA down to ~$200k, partially due to sale distractions and owner issues
- Salable inventory in access of $1m
Owner needs an exit and is considering a fully financed sale. He's looking for a value in the $2m range, which would be a steal on $1m of EBITDA but is rich on $2ook. A simple multiple of EBITDA here ignores part of the story. How would you think about value?
Thank you all for your insights!
from Concordia University in Toronto, ON, Canada
A few points: 1) This is a turnaround opportunity then and you should have a well thought recovery strategy. It will need further capital as it recovers and grows and of course you will spend a lot of time and efforts to take it back to track. 2) In addition to NWC (or inventory) you also need to consider the fixed assets included that are enough to generate $1M EBITDA, perhaps FMW of $1M or so. 3) In a manufacturing turnaround case you sure pay more than the cash flow multiple, but less than the FMV of the assets. And the seller should be more flexible about the transaction and payment terms. So try to negotiate as much as possible. 4) The owner having health issues may leave soon after the closing. You need to have a good understanding of their different market bases, product lines and revenue streams. 5) While the GM looks to be in the range of 30%-35%, and recovery of sales may take some time, your short-term focus should be on cost cutting and taking operating/admin expenses under control. 6) Long-term strategy should be diversifying the services to other industries.
Hope above is helpful.
from Northwestern University in San Rafael, CA, USA
Industry headwinds make for a very difficult environment against which to launch. With tailwinds, you can make some mistakes and still win. Decline can bring increased competition, tightening margins, and little room for error. Agreed with Andrew that a forgivable note is a great way to structure. An earnout could also bridge the valuation gap. Regardless, presuming it has moderately high fixed costs, its margins might be quite low.. You need to build in some cushion under the premise that you will be figuring out the business over FY1.