This is a gifts and home business. Discretionary purchase. I'm valuing it at 3.3x EBITDA and expecting that 2024 will be 10% down on 2023, with growth returning in 2025 in response to increased sales effort and product launches.
Questions:
1. Is 3.3x fair/rich/lowball?
2. I'm asking for normalized NWC to be included at that multiple. Seller claims that the business has carried too much inventory but I have verified that it needs to carry what it has done historically because of various supply chain constraints
3. How would you calculate NWC? I'm asking for Average(AR - AP + Inventory)
2019 2020 2021 2022 TTM Sept
Revenue 7.7 5.5 6.6 6.2 5.9
GP 4.4 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.7
GP% 57.53% 63.46% 58.96% 58.97% 62.62%
Expenses 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5
Expenses % 48.24% 50.44% 38.69% 38.56% 43.48%
EBITDA 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.1
EBITDA % 9.63% 13.43% 20.20% 20.64% 19.08%
AR Dec 0.4 0.39 0.35 0.31 0.4 AP Dec -0.2 -0.2 -###-###-#### -0.16 Inventory Dec###-###-#### 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.5
Did you get an inventory listing data? How are you gonna account for fast moving low margin, high margin slow moving? Any perishable or deteriorating type product ?