The AI Buildout Has Become a Bond Market Story
The AI capex race has moved into the debt markets. Since January, Meta, Nvidia and Oracle have each raised roughly $25 billion in single bond offerings, more than any of them has ever pulled from equity. Amazon sold $37 billion in March. Alphabet issued a 100-year bond in the UK, a maturity you almost never see from a corporate issuer.
Morgan Stanley expects AI-linked investment-grade issuance of $350 to $400 billion in US markets this year, close to a fifth of all high-quality dollar corporate bonds forecast forredactedThe five hyperscalers - Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle - added $228 billion of debt in the six months to March.
Here is the part worth sitting with. Despite all this new borrowing, investors are demanding almost no risk premium. These bonds yield only about 0.8 percentage points more than US Treasuries, the smallest gap in roughly 25 years. The market treats this debt as close to riskless because the issuers throw off enormous free cash flow. The Bank for International Settlements is less relaxed, warning that AI projects may not earn enough to service the debt behind them. The Economist adds a counterintuitive point: financial crises rarely start with debt that investors already know is risky, because that risk is priced in. Trouble builds in the debt everyone assumed was safe.
Why It Matters For Dealmakers
If AI debt reprices, spreads widen everywhere and acquisition financing gets more expensive and more selective. Buyers relying on cheap leverage should watch this market, not just the equity headlines.