You have likely heard the phrase “more risk, more reward”. But this is the wrong way to think about investment or capital allocation decisions, especially in periods of uncertainty or perceived assuredness.

At Thesis, we appreciate the insights of the Journal's Jason Zweig (The Wall Street Journal). In his February 25th 2022 article, "How to Invest Calmly in a Chaotic World" he states that "now that Russia has attacked Ukraine and emotions are running high, it might be tempting to get out of the market to keep your money safe, if you’re feeling afraid—or to bet on what sounds like a sure thing, if you’re feeling aggressive. But hasty decisions are often wrong, and big hasty decisions almost always are."

We share our thinking on leveraging risk and probability in decision making to best navigate opportunities at .