How long do you hold onto a thesis?

September 10, 2025

by a searcher from McGill University in Portland, ME, USA

Hey folks - curious how others have thought about holding onto your parameters or a well-defined thesis when things don't pan out according to your research / plans? In my case, I am building a platform of small acquisitions in the services space, staying very geographically concentrated and focused on a particular sub-sector. I have had a lot of acquisition conversations but feels like I am doing a lot more coaching Mom and Pops on a path to eventual exit (long term view) vs. the traction I expected around deal conversion in the short term. I am considering building from scratch myself while simultaneously pursuing small acquisitions but know that it presents a whole new set of challenges (and much to the chagrin on many, goes beyond the realm of ETA!). I'm curious how others have thought about the trade-off or when they've been able to recognize that a change in tactic / strategy was needed.

Reply by a searcher
from Cornell University in Venice Beach, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Hard to pin a length of time on it, pursue until you've proven the hypothesis wrong. Greenfield is always an interesting avenue, but will take capital and you're taking on a different set of risks. Services business acquisition is a pretty tried-and-true thesis. Not sure what subsector you're playing in, but if it's something general like janitorial/HVAC/landscaping/restoration, there will always be companies to acquire there (though those hot industries have lots of searchers). If you're having conversations with buyers that don't want to sell, you may need to change your approach/conversations with them or change the filtering mechanism you're using to find the companies.

Reply by an investor
from University of the Sunshine Coast in Brisbane QLD, Australia

If depends! But the decision needs to be balanced with the quantitative and qualitative data. For me, biased towards quantitative. Let's say you have a total list of 500, if you have gotten through 150 of them and haven't had a great deal of progress beyond initial conversations then you'd start to consider a switch due to the opportunity cost of the search. Specifically for a roll up type strategy as you need to have the numbers on your side. Refining your pitch and deal structure may also be an option before pivoting though.

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