Green card SBA Loan ban implications

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by a professional from Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth
in Cary, NC, USA

4mos ago

Green card SBA Loan ban implications

Based on quick research: Around 3.5% of citizens+residents in the USA are GC Holders, however they are 15% - 50% more likely to own a business, hence we can safely say 6% of SBA demand just left the market. This begs the following questions (and more) - Will the SBA loan rate drop? - If so, will sellers increase valuations (lower rate) or decrease it (less demand)? - And how will this impact the equity market, with 6% less demand on the baseline, but perhaps more demand if valuations increase more than loan rate drop. - Will GC holders truly leave the arena? Or will they opt to other financing structures , both in terms of debt (seller notes? earn-outs?) and equity What are your thoughts on the immediate macro implications?

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reply by a searcher 2w ago
from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in Cary, NC, USA

It'll likely turn into a shift for seeking cutout debt holders backed by pools of non SBA eligible equity investors & operators. Which will spir further regulatory changes and ultimately reduce valuations through decreased searcher demand. Eventually establishing a new baseline transaction rate somewhere above the low.

reply by a searcher 2w ago
in New Jersey, USA

Capital is always looking for a profitable home. If those GC holders have a track record of success or can prove they can generate profits, they will find investment capital, albeit at a higher interest rate. Regarding SBA demand, I don't think it will change much because there are so many new searchers entering the market lately. Additionally, information and the benefits of buying a business is more readily accessible now than it has ever been in history, which I believe will lead to more younger searchers seriously pursuing this path than previous generations.