Anyone experienced in the armored car / cash logistics industry? This is a route-based business offering branch cash delivery and pickup, ATM cash replenishment, and limited courier services of high value goods like jewelry, pharmaceuticals, coin, etc.

Customers are primarily retail chains, bank branches, and high schools. Opportunity to expand in gaming / gambling and cannabis.

I suspect similar dynamics to Waste Management industry, where route density is key, and building a diversified route allows you to offer more competitive pricing to additional locations. I'd appreciate any other thoughts on key business drivers.

This industry has massively consolidated over the last 20 years, with Brinks and Gardaworld each making perhaps ~50 acquisitions since 2005, with EBITDA multiples in the 8x-9x range for larger acquisitions, and "mid- to high single-digit" for smaller. The remaining players seem to be sub-scale and focused on secondary cities or low-density areas between cities. Is the industry consolidation a red flag or an opportunity? My target is a sub-scale player with ~$1M in revenue and existing demand to be able to reach $2-3M.