Comparing Yale vs Stanford Results

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by an intermediary
in Austin, TX, USA

2h ago

Comparing Yale vs Stanford Results

The Yale study corroborates earlier analysis of the Stanford results quite well. Yale tracked 1,192 actual cash flows across 12 investors and 23 funds and found a weighted-average 2.5x, with most investors landing 2.0x–3.0x and 58% of completed deals returning under 2x. Our equal-weighted Monte Carlo simulation produced a 2.1–2.6x median from completely independent reasoning. Two different methods, same answer. Yale's explanation for why real investors miss the 4.5x is "limited deal access — most can't get into the rare 'griffin' (10x+) deals." Meaning the Stanford headline is dollar-weighted and outlier-driven, and an equal-weighted LP only gets 1/N of each grand slam.

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