Chenmark - Weekly Thoughts - Lake Wobegon
Chenmark Thoughts on the State of Search
A Prairie Home Companion was a popular weekly variety show that ran from 1974 toredactedThe show featured a fictional town in Minnesota called Lake Wobegon where "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." Sounds like an Ivy League business school.
Today, psychologists refer to the Lake Wobegon Effect (also known was illusory superiority) as the tendency for people to significantly overestimate their own abilities, intelligence, or achievements. The effect is well documented. For example, more than 90% of Americans believe they are better-than-average drivers. Ninety percent of college professors believe they are above-average teachers. Only 1% of high school students think their social skills are below average. Unfortuntely, that's not how math works.
Interesting, but what does this have to do with Chenmark? Right now, if you're anywhere near the search fund world, your LinkedIn feed is buzzing with hot takes on Stanford's recently published 2026 Search Fund Study. The report remains the most comprehensive look at search funds in the U.S. and Canada, and while we've always been adjacent to that world, we enjoy reading each bi-annual update.
The broad trends aren't particularly surprising. Attractive returns have brought more entrepreneurs and more capital into the space, and competition has increased. Acquisition rates have declined. Outcomes are more dispersed. Institutional capital is more prevalent. Search remains an attractive path for many people, albeit an increasingly competitive one.
These trends indicate that to pursue a search, you have get comfortable holding two opposing truths in mind at the same time. On one hand, search is fundamentally entrepreneurial. To forgo a good job, spend years searching for a company, and then convince investors, sellers, employees, and lenders to believe in you requires extraordinary conviction. In a sense, you have to take a trip to Lake Wobegon. You have to believe you're above average and embrace your inner Han Solo.
On the other hand, the statistics deserve respect. Search acquisition rates have declined and continue to trend downward. Roughly 42% of searchers never acquire a company. Of those who do, approximately 26% ultimately lose money. Those aren't reasons not to search. But they are reasons to approach the decision with humility.
Sometimes we cross paths with searchers past and present who ask us to compare Chenmark's GVP program with more traditional options. These conversations are often framed in economic terms. People want to know where they can make the most money.
Our answer is yes, we believe we have developed a model that offers better economic opportunity than most other flavors of ETA. But studies focusing purely on the economics of various options miss the point. People join Chenmark because they love the work, they want to be part of building something that will outlast anyone currently employed, and they want to contribute to an extraordinary community of people who challenge, support, and inspire each other daily. The economics surely matter, and we're proud of that track record as well, but the point of Chenmark isn't purely to make money. The money is a byproduct of the mission and the team.
We understand that some people simply have the itch to follow their own path. We respect that immensely. Some of those people will go on to build extraordinary businesses. But, if that trip to Lake Wobegon doesn't work out quite the way you imagined, or you'd like to go somewhere else entirely, we're always happy to chat.
Have a great week,
Your Chenmark Team
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