August 2025: Current approaches to inventory and valuation due to tariffs

searcher profile

August 04, 2025

by a searcher from The University of Chicago - Booth School of Business in Santa Cruz, CA, USA

I am dating my subject because the search feature doesn't allow one to easily see dates and things are very dynamic. As of August 2025, it is clear that Trump's tariffs will continue to be a feature of his administration, though hopefully less than originally feared. There still might be considerable volatility in the next years though. Businesses have had time to deploy some limited mitigation strategies (e.g., alternate sourcing or pre-buying inventory) I am hoping that sellers are more willing to sell and negotiate now that there is a little more certainty. As an example, I am looking at a business that sources mostly from Taiwan. The tariff was just announced at 20% The business has engaged in significant pre-buy this year (at 10% tariff rate). They use cash accounting of inventory for tax reasons. I don't want to penalize their making reasonable inventory decisions but I also don't want to be responsible for obsolete inventory My current thoughts on how to value (feedback appreciated) 1. Normalize EBITDA to (a) remove excess inventory from P&L, i.e., adjust to accrual basis (b) scale up COGS to current tariff levels 2. Value business based on : (a) multiple of Normalized EBITDA, plus (b) Excess inventory at cost (consignment and/or with warranty for obsolescence) 3. Potential negotiation points: (a) "This is just negotiation. Tariffs will come down " --> forgivable seller note to cover upside (b) "You won't pay the full tariff next year because you will draw from inventory" --> pay seller for inventory at cost + current tariff. (need consignment model or other means to disincentivize excess inventory buys) I greatly appreciate any additional thoughts, or what you have seen as reasonable in discussions with sellers. Best regards, Joh
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commentor profile
Reply by an intermediary
from The University of Chicago in Chicago, IL, USA
1) First do the business DD, valuation, NWC etc. as-if there was no tariff increase. 2) Then overlay tariff impact on above items plus consider the points raised by ^redacted‌ especially the one fixed price long-term contracts. 3) I have seen many cost increases; tripling of wood cost post-covid (my seller absorbed the cost), 2x or 3x steel prices increase many years ago (I did not take the listing b/c inventory value at new cost exceeded EBITDA based value), 18% overnight cost increase for auto-parts mfg companies around###-###-#### Seller had 2 customers. Buyer wanted price reduction even though my seller mitigated the cost increase. We killed the LOI. Sold it a new buyer. After 8 years, he sold for 28x MOIC), etc. 4) My main point is, make sure the business fundaments are strong. Keep analysis simple. This is a good article on tariff impact on NWC. https://www.pkfod.com/insights/tariff-impacts-on-working-capital-avoiding-pitfalls-in-ma-true-up-calculations/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=clickdimensions&utm_content=USA-2025-Q3-TAX-TLA-LGE-NEX-tariff-impacts-on-working-capital-avoiding-pitfalls-in-ma-true-up-calculations&_cldee=8W0Ffh_Pwej_sxvr_8glg4LLw54n1etVNkebpC8c-8EYdQzOZg-Q-OFH1AuqLGCe&recipientid=lead-212e2ffbdb98ed11aad10022482b2f3b-fe11d794b0c2450fba9fefb522a03b41&utm_source=ClickDimensions&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2025%20-%20Advisory&esid=eb2f7830-935d-f011-bec1-0022481c0022
commentor profile
Reply by a lender
from Eastern Illinois University in 900 E Diehl Rd, Naperville, IL 60563, USA
I think you have outlined some good strategies here to try and minimize the impact. There are a few other things to consider. 1) How sensitive are their clients to price increases? Do they have fixed contracts with customers or can they pass through price increases, and what success have they had in doing that before. 2) How are competitors impacted. Do they have the same type of price increases either via Taiwan tariffs or other tariffs from where they import? 3) What it the potential net effect of tariffs on margins? Can you retrade the business based on an adjusted EBITDA margin with higher tariffs making an adjustment for the future impact of tariffs? Then you could always adjust and pay them for excess inventory or put that inventory on consignment. I hope these additional thoughts help. You can reach me here or directly at redacted
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