A Contrarian Take on ETA in the AI Era

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by a searcher from Southern Methodist University - Edwin L. Cox School of Business
in Denver, CO, USA

1mo ago

A Contrarian Take on ETA in the AI Era

Over the last 5 years, I’ve watched the ETA movement absolutely explode. And honestly… I get it. Buying an existing business gives you: Existing revenue Existing customers Existing cash flow Existing operations In theory, you’re skipping the hardest part: starting from zero. But now I think the AI era changes the equation entirely. Because when you acquire a business, you’re not just buying revenue. You’re also buying: legacy systems outdated processes cultural baggage technical debt operational inefficiency people/process complexity someone else’s “dirty closet” And you’re often financing all of that with significant debt at a moment where technology is moving faster than at any point in modern business history. My contrarian take: In 2026, it may actually be LESS risky to build an AI-native business from scratch than to buy and modernize a legacy one. We’re entering a world where the gap between: AI creators/builders and AI consumers/users is going to widen dramatically. Widen is an understatement. Some are calling it the "forking of humanity." (side note: this is super interesting stuff - check out Peter Diamandis - redacted Small, highly-leveraged AI-native companies can now move with a speed and efficiency that traditional businesses simply can’t match structurally. A tiny team with the right workflows, automation, agents, and distribution can create enormous value without inheriting years of operational entropy. For context: I bought a business 3 years ago and sold it a year ago. I thought, "what could go wrong?" Everything went wrong. It is MUCH harder and heavier than the ETA talking heads represent. I took on a ton of risk and carried insurmountable stress. All my choices. I learned an incredible amount doing it, and I don’t regret it at all. BUT... if I were starting fresh today... I’d build an AI-native company from the ground up. Curious how others here are thinking about this shift. Does AI strengthen the ETA thesis… or weaken it?

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reply by a professional-advisory 2d ago
from University of California, Berkeley in Dallas, TX, USA

Sean is onto something, but there may be a third path emerging in the AI era: acquire customer relationships without acquiring the operating complexity. Instead of buying a full business with employees, systems, leases, technical debt, culture, and financing risk, what if you bought the customer accounts of micro-businesses that are too small to sell but are about to shut down? Many owners are retiring, burning out, or simply can't adapt to AI. Rather than acquiring the entire company, you could acquire their customer base, key IP, domain assets, and brand goodwill, then migrate those customers into a modern AI-native operating model. Has anyone here successfully acquired a book of business, customer accounts, or client relationships without acquiring the full operating company? What did you learn?

reply by a searcher 2d ago
from The University of Texas at Austin in Vancouver, WA, USA

For many businesses, AI cannot replace a phone number on a sticker inside someone garage or that has been around town for 30+ years. That running start is great. Implementing AI is a value add, assuming the roll out is done thoughtfully, but quickly. Turns out, my thesis is to buy small (smaller than I thought) where I can quickly implement AI so that it can scale without the overhead. I think there is a happy medium and not a one-size-fits-all approach.