80% market share company

searcher profile

January 30, 2025

by a searcher from INSEAD in Paris, France

Hi, I'm looking at a company which has 80% market share in its niche (B2B distributor). We are under LOI and currently doing DD###-###-#### results just came in and revenue is flat (whereas past years saw a growth of 10-20% a year. EBITDA margins are healthy at 25%. I have identified growth avenues, but is it a mistake to buy this company that has already so much market share and is probably reaching soon its peak in its niche ?

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commentor profile
Reply by an investor
from Belmont University in Nashville, TN, USA
Just my two cents here (stolen from Warren Buffett:
"The value of any economic asset is the discounted value of the cash it can generate between now and Judgement Day."

So all that matters is a) How much cash can it generate, b) for how long, and c) when will it start giving you that cash?

I don't think exceptional growth is the primary goal. Finding a resilient, long term earnings stream is the primary goal.

If this business has some feature that defends that market share for many years to come, and you think it will generate consistent earnings, then price it to that. I (at best) will price in rate of inflation growth of 2%.

We would personally LOVE that profile of company, so sent it my way if you pass!
commentor profile
Reply by a searcher
from Binghamton University, State University of New York in New York, NY, USA
Buying a company with such a dominant market share isn’t necessarily a bad move—as long as you have a solid plan to keep it growing or make it more efficient. If you've identified real opportunities to expand, whether through new markets, products, or pricing strategies, this could still be a great deal. But if the market is truly tapped out with no realistic path forward, your upside might be limited. The key question is: Can you unlock new growth, or are you buying something that’s already at its peak? If you’re confident in your strategy, this could be a strong investment. If not, it’s worth re-evaluating before you commit.
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